Nuggets vs Thunder Prediction, Picks & Odds for Monday's NBA Playoffs Game 1, May 5, 2025
The 2025 NBA Western Conference Semifinals present a compelling matchup between the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder and the defending champions, the Denver Nuggets. This series not only features two of the league's premier teams but also showcases a battle between MVP frontrunners Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokić.
Team Overviews
Oklahoma City Thunder (68–14, 4–0 in Playoffs)
The Thunder concluded the regular season with the NBA's best record, earning the Maurice Podoloff Trophy for the first time in franchise history. Their dominance continued into the playoffs, sweeping the Memphis Grizzlies in the first round. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the league in scoring with 32.7 points per game on 52% shooting, while Chet Holmgren contributed significantly with averages of 18.5 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 2.8 blocks per game in the series against Memphis .
Denver Nuggets (50–32, 4–3 in Playoffs)
The Nuggets faced a challenging first-round series against the Los Angeles Clippers, ultimately prevailing in seven games. Nikola Jokić continued his stellar play, averaging 29.6 points, 12.7 rebounds, and 10.2 assists per game. Jamal Murray also elevated his performance, averaging 24.6 points, 6.2 assists, and 4.8 rebounds, joining an elite group of players with such postseason averages over 70 or more games .
| Category | Oklahoma City Thunder | Denver Nuggets |
|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Record | 68–14 | 50–32 |
| Points Per Game | 118.3 | 116.2 |
| Opponent Points Per Game | 104.7 | 109.5 |
| Field Goal % | 48.5% | 47.2% |
| 3-Point % | 39.1% | 37.8% |
| Rebounds Per Game | 44.8 | 45.5 |
Note: Statistics are based on regular-season averages.
Key Matchups
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Jamal Murray
Gilgeous-Alexander's scoring prowess will be tested against Denver's defense, particularly Jamal Murray, who has a history of elevating his game in the playoffs. Murray's ability to match or exceed Gilgeous-Alexander's output could be pivotal in determining the series outcome.
Nikola Jokić vs. Chet Holmgren
The battle in the paint between Jokić and Holmgren will be crucial. Jokić's experience and versatility contrast with Holmgren's athleticism and shot-blocking ability. How Holmgren handles Jokić's multifaceted game could significantly influence the series.
X-Factors
Thunder's Depth and Defense
Oklahoma City's depth, including players like Jalen Williams and Lu Dort, provides flexibility and defensive prowess. Their ability to contain Denver's secondary scorers and maintain offensive efficiency will be essential.
Nuggets' Experience and Coaching
Denver's playoff experience, including their 2023 championship run, offers a psychological edge. Interim coach David Adelman's strategies and adjustments will be under scrutiny, especially in close games.
| Game | Date | Matchup | Time (ET) | Venue | Broadcast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | Monday, May 5 | Nuggets @ Thunder | 9:30 PM | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City | TNT/truTV/Max |
| Game 2 | Wednesday, May 7 | Nuggets @ Thunder | 9:30 PM | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City | TNT/truTV/Max |
| Game 3 | Friday, May 9 | Thunder @ Nuggets | 10:00 PM | Ball Arena, Denver | ESPN |
| Game 4 | Sunday, May 11 | Thunder @ Nuggets | 3:30 PM | Ball Arena, Denver | ABC |
| Game 5* | Tuesday, May 13 | Nuggets @ Thunder | TBD | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City | TNT/truTV/Max |
| Game 6* | Thursday, May 15 | Thunder @ Nuggets | TBD | Ball Arena, Denver | ESPN |
| Game 7* | Sunday, May 18 | Nuggets @ Thunder | TBD | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City | TBD |
Prediction
The Thunder's impressive regular-season performance and dominant first-round sweep position them as favorites. However, the Nuggets' resilience and playoff experience cannot be underestimated. If Denver can steal a game on the road and leverage their home-court advantage, they have a viable path to victory.
Series Prediction: Thunder in 7 games.
